The influence of cohort effects on mortality trends in India

Abstract

The inferences drawn from this study are as follows: The stagnation/ increase in mortality rates of adult ages in the recent years in India as well as for the major states may be attributed to food shortages and price hikes experienced in the country during 1960–74. In other words, all those who were adults during 1980s had experienced the crisis of hunger due to nonavailability of food as well as entitlement failure during their childhood. These persons would have had higher risk of dying in their life time and that may be one of the main reasons for the stagnation or increase in adult mortality in India and in most of the states. The findings of the study suggest that, the economic crisis experienced in India during the late eighties, may decrease the survival chances of those born during this period in their future life time. However, successful containment of increase in food prices during the period of crisis would be helpful in protecting the entitlement of vulnerable groups. The policy implication of the study is that it is essential to control the prices of food during the time of food shortages and or economic crisis and even in the period when food is available, measures should be undertaken to evolve efficient distribution system ensuring the supply of food to those vulnerable groups, who were unlucky to be born or were in infancy during the period of economic crisis. Thus, essentially this is a study in interaction of economic factors and demographic trends in an economy where large segments of the population are periodically subject to heightened food insecurities, compression of real wages and entitlement failures.