The influence of climatic changes on range expansion and phenology of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) in the territory of Russia

Abstract

Analysis of expansion of the potential range of the Colorado potato beetle Leptinotarsa decemlineata Say and shifts of the zones with different number of generations per season was carried out using cartographic modeling. The shifts were caused by the climate changes in Russia observed in recent decades. The annual sum of effective mean daily air temperatures was selected as the main criterion which determines both the suitability of the area for the Colorado potato beetle and the number of generations that can be produced in one season. The main range expansion was observed in the east direction, and the greatest changes took place during expanding of the zones with the possible development of one or two generations. The boundaries of the zone where development of three generations is possible changed to a lesser degree.