The influence of climate regime shifts on the marine environment and ecosystems in the East Asian Marginal Seas and their mechanisms

Abstract

Step changes to seawater temperature (SWT) in the East Asian marginal seas (EAMS) are associated with three recent climate regime shifts (CRS) occurring in the mid-1970s, late 1980s, and late 1990s, but the responses of the ocean conditions and marine ecosystems had regional differences. A step change in SWT in the East China Sea (ECS) was detected after the CRS of the 1970s as were step changes in the North Pacific Index (NPI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI), and East Asian Winter Monsoon Index (EAWMI). SWT in the ECS decreased with decreasing warm water volume transport into the EAMS and a strong monsoon, but step changes in SWT in other regions were not detected as clearly. After the CRS of the 1980s, SWT in all EAMS increased rapidly with step changes detected in all five climate indices examined. These changes were associated with a weak winter monsoon, increasing surface air temperature (SAT), and increasing warm water volume transport into the EAMS. However, after the CRS of the 1990s, a decrease in SWT around the EAMS was detected in the northern part of East China Sea (NECS), and the ECS with step changes also in the EAWMI and the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). In contrast, SWT in the East Sea/Sea of Japan (EJS) and the Yellow Sea (YS) continuously increased during this time. Long-term changes in zooplankton biomass were affected by regional differences in the responses of atmospheric and oceanic variability to CRSs. Specifically, long-term changes in the timing of peaks in zooplankton abundances exhibited differences. During warm periods (e.g. after the 1980s CRS) in the EJS, the amount of zooplankton biomass in October increased, while in February it decreased. On the contrary, in the YS and the NECS, the peaks of October and June in zooplankton biomass occurred during cold periods (after the 1970s and 1990s CRS). Major fisheries resources also responded to the three CRSs, although warm and cold water species responded differently to changes in oceanographic conditions in regional spawning grounds.