The Influence of Climate Change on Three Dominant Alpine Species under Different Scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Huawei Hu,Wenying Wang,Yanqiang Wei,Chunya Wang

doi:10.3390/d13120682

Abstract

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change.

Highlights

Climate change is considered to be one of the most important driving factors of species distribution [1,2,3] According to the report of the sixth Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject (CMIP6), the global temperature will continue to increase by the end of the 21st century [4]
The results indicated that subsoil conditions had very limited impacts on the potential distribution of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii and Potentilla parvifolia
We explored the influence of climate change on two dominant alpine trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant alpine shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) under different climate scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is considered to be one of the most important driving factors of species distribution [1,2,3] According to the report of the sixth Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject (CMIP6), the global temperature will continue to increase by the end of the 21st century [4]. Many species shift their suitable habitats especially upward in altitude in order to adapt to changes in environmental conditions [6,7]. It remains unclear what influences climate change will have on alpine species at large regional scales and whether alpine species respond uniformly on the QTP. Kom) and one dominant and representative alpine shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) on the QTP were used in this study, Picea crassifolia favors shady slopes, semi-shady slopes and humid valleys in the mountains with an altitude of 1750–3100 m (a.s.l), is endemic to China, and is distributed in the Qilian Mountains, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner. Sabina przewalskii grows on sunny slopes of 2600–4000 m (a.s.l), is endemic to China, and is distributed in Qinghai, Gansu Hexi Corridor, and the north of Sichuan

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Conclusion