Abstract
Current scientific evidence shows that human activities are causing interference at different levels in the global climate and availability of natural resources, and many authors already relate water scarcity to the increased risk of violent conflict, particularly in rural societies on the African continent. Climate disruptions caused by climate change are reflected on a regional and local scale, and the greatest impacts are already being felt in the poorest areas of the planet. Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, has been facing environmental problems in its territory that can be associated with climate change, such as rising temperatures, reduced rainfall and advancing desertification. Considering that all these phenomena have been worsening since the early twentieth century in Nigeria and, due to the escalating of violent conflicts since the beginning of the current century, the objective of this paper is to analyse how climate change can interfere in the conflict between herdsmen and farmers, as well as the possible impact of seasonal variation in rainfall on the dynamics of these communal conflicts. The study focused on literature review and the case study took place in four Nigerian states (Plateau, Benue, Taraba and Nasarawa) for the period 2010-2017, focusing on the communal conflict involving the Fulani ethnic group. The approach adopted was the inductive method in which the behaviour of rainfall in the study area was compared with the number of deaths resulting from the conflict, in addition to using geo-processing software to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of casualties. The theoretical framework used was that proposed by Thomas Homer-Dixon (1994) and the information was collected from primary sources, with consultation of qualitative and quantitative data, and from secondary sources through book reviews, publications and papers in scientific journals. While it is not yet possible to establish a direct and linear relationship between climate change and violent conflict, the revised literature indicates that competition for water and other natural resources in certain parts of Nigeria is increasing, and that the violent conflicts between Fulani herdsmen and farmers are increasing due to the dispute over access to water sources and grazing lands. Data analysis shows that in the study area there are 46.4% more deaths in the dry season (November to April) than in the rainy season (May to October). While there are still not enough elements to conclude that climate change is the primary cause of the conflict, the analysis reinforces the need, in certain contexts, particularly in developing countries with populations highly dependent on the primary sector of the economy, for the impacts of climate change to be seriously considered as a risk to human security.
Highlights
With the end of the Cold War, the definition of the concept of security came to have a broader understanding, incorporating new dimensions that surpassed the exclusively state bias (Tomé, 2012)
This paper focuses on two objectives: i) initially, we sought to analyse based on the theory on the subject how the growing scarcity of natural resources, especially the scarcity of water, which has being aggravated by climate change according to scientific observation, applies to communal conflicts involving the Fulani ethnicity, especially in rural areas in the northern and central-eastern parts of Nigeria; and secondly, ii) it was verified how the seasonal variation in water availability, analysed from the rainfall index data in the rainy season (May-Oct) and the dry season (Nov-Apr), from 2010 to 2017, relates to the dynamics of communal conflicts involving the Fulani ethnicity in four Nigerian states (Plateau, Benue, Taraba and Nasarawa) located in the centraleastern zone of the country
Scientific studies have shown that climate change plays an important role in worsening drought and desertification, which contributes to the forced displacement of rural populations from the north to the central-eastern region expecting to find natural resources to maintain their lifestyles
Summary
With the end of the Cold War, the definition of the concept of security came to have a broader understanding, incorporating new dimensions that surpassed the exclusively state bias (Tomé, 2012). In addition to military issues, social, economic, and environmental factors have incorporated the list of elements necessary to ensure world peace and security since the 1990s (Dannreuther, 2013; Sheehan, 2005; UNSC, 1992) In this context of broadening the understanding of security, the challenges posed by the scarcity of natural resources have been considered (Homer-Dixon, 1994), in view of the recognition that the tensions generated around access and use of natural resources have the ability to unleash violent conflicts between different actors and groups, especially on an intrastate scale (Conca & Wallace, 2012). Climate change has the capacity to widen social disparities through
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