The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study.

Kaj Hansen,Jørgen Brandt,Jesper Christensen

doi:10.3390/ijerph120911254

Kaj Hansen, Jørgen Brandt + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120911254

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Abstract

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.

Highlights

Mercury (Hg) is a widespread pollutant that can lead to neurological and behavioural effects in infants and higher incidence of cardiovascular diseases for people with elevated exposures [1,2]
We have studied the contribution from the major source areas (Asia, Europe and North America) and we have investigated how changes in emissions affect the deposition in the Arctic compared to changes in climate
We have performed a series of model simulations to test how the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing

Summary

Introduction

Mercury (Hg) is a widespread pollutant that can lead to neurological and behavioural effects in infants and higher incidence of cardiovascular diseases for people with elevated exposures [1,2]. The natural cycling of mercury has been perturbed by emissions from human activities, with small-scale gold mining and coal burning being the largest sources. This has led to at least a two-fold increase in atmospheric emissions since the industrial revolution in the 18th century [1]. Hg is distributed globally and is transported to the Arctic via ocean currents and rivers as well as via the atmosphere, which is assessed to be the largest transport pathway [3]. Blood levels of Hg in parts of the Arctic population are higher than the safety limit [2], declining trends are found in recent years probably associated with a change in diet [1]

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