Abstract
Abstract The subject of the thesis concerns the application of selected statistical methods searching for outliers in the process of determining the value of real estate, based on a functional model adjusted to market data. The collected research material consisted of data on land properties, which were the subject of transactions on local markets, for which there was no information regarding the specific conditions of concluding the sale agreement. After the initial selection of data regarding the purpose of the property in the local plan, the type of property rights being sold and the size of the shares sold - a functional model was adjusted to the obtained data, showing the relationship between the price being the dependent variable and the features of the property being the independent variables. Then, two statistical methods of searching for outliers which are significantly different in their algorithms, i.e. Cook’s distance and robust estimation method called Pope’s method, were applied to each model. The last stage was to determine the model values of selected properties and to compare the obtained results with the known transaction prices of the parcels being the subject of the valuation. The conducted research allowed for the verification of the influence of significantly different statistical methods searching for outliers on the property valuation result and its accuracy.
Highlights
Real estate appraisal is a process as a result of which the real estate value is determined by a real estate appraiser
A linear and non-linear multivariate functional model were fitted to each data set, in which the price was the dependent variable of the model and the property features - the independent, explanatory variables
– model values obtained on the basis of the estimation of parameters of non-linear models give a greater chance of approaching the transaction price, as evidenced by the Busko-Zdrój case, where the transaction price is within the specified confidence interval, as opposed to the result obtained for the linear model
Summary
Real estate appraisal is a process as a result of which the real estate value is determined by a real estate appraiser. In the valuation of real estate using a comparative approach, it is assumed that the value of the real estate corresponds to the prices obtained for similar properties that were traded on the market. Statistical methods searching for outliers can be helpful in the credible modeling of the real estate market Such methods include, for example, Cook's distance and Pope's robust estimation method. By using the methods of detecting outliers, we usually obtain an improvement in the quality of the functional model, which gives a premise for a more accurate property valuation result, reflecting the real situation in the field of prices obtained for the real estate sold in the market under study. The article compares the results of the point estimation of the model real estate value obtained after applying Cook's distance and Pope's method to the functional models of a studied real estate market. The obtained results were commented on in relation to transaction prices, which were recorded for the properties, which were the subject of the valuation
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