Abstract
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities inChinafrom 1998 to 2016, this paper studies the effect of demographic structure on social security expenditure inChinaby using entity fixed effect regression model. The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between population aging and social security expenditure in the demographic structure, and there is a positive correlation between population aging and social security expenditure. And the different cross-sectional effects in 31 regions of China reflect the difference between population aging and social security expenditure in different regions of China.
Highlights
The population aging is an inevitable result of the transformation of demographic structure
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 1998 to 2016, this paper studies the effect of demographic structure on social security expenditure in China by using entity fixed effect regression model
The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between population aging and social security expenditure in the demographic structure, and there is a positive correlation between population aging and social security expenditure
Summary
The population aging is an inevitable result of the transformation of demographic structure. Wu to analyze the dynamic relationship between population aging and the expenditure of social security and employment. Tong Yufen and Liu Guangjun [2] (2008) took Beijing as an example to establish a binary linear regression equation, which found that the proportion of the expenditure of social security and employment will increase by about 2.029 percentage points if the proportion of aging of population over 65 increases by 1 percentage point. Li Hongxin and Li Wei [3] (2012) used time series data and took the dependency ratio of the elderly population as control variable to establish regression model, which noted that aging of population increases fiscal expenditure by contributing to an increasing in fiscal expenditure on social security and employment. This paper uses panel data from 1998 to 2016 to analyze the direct influence of population aging on social security expenditure by establishing entity fixed effect regression model
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