The Influence of Changing Climate Extremes on the Ecological Niche of Pedunculate Oak in Croatia

Abstract

Background and Purpose: Forest trees are adapted to the specific climatic conditions and other ecological factors that dominate within their distribution range. However, climate is in constant flux. In addition to natural climatic oscillations, climate has also been changed directly or indirectly by human activities. The issue of climate change is tied mostly to air temperature and precipitation. The objective of this study was to assess the potential influence of climate change on a part of the ecological niche of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) in Croatia. Materials and Methods:A forecast model was developed for the ecological niche of pedunculate oak in Croatia from the present day to 2080 using logistical regression, on the basis of a climate change model. Results: Within the lowland areas of Croatia, the model forecasts an increase in the minimum temperatures of the coldest month and maximum temperature of the warmest month, and reduced precipitation in both the driest and wettest months. Conclusion: The results indicate that climate change will negatively impact the ecological niche of pedunculate oak in the future.