The influence of carbon risk on firm value: Evidence from the European Union Emission Trading Scheme

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of carbon risk induced through carbon price uncertainty in cap-and-trade policies on the value of covered firms. Specifically, the study explores the effects of policy adjustments made at the start of the third phase of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which aimed to address an oversupply of carbon allowances. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that the resulting increase in policy-induced carbon risk led to value discounts for firms with insufficient carbon allowances to offset their emissions, even when carbon prices themselves remained low. The findings highlight the importance of carbon risk exposure and the resulting carbon risk channel that influences firm value in a cap-and-trade scheme.