The Influence of Boreal Summer Madden–Julian Oscillation on Precipitation Extremes in Indonesia

Abstract

This study examines the influence of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Indonesian precipitation during the extended boreal summer (May–September). The MJO is one of the dominant intra-seasonal variabilities that influence the extreme precipitation in the tropics, especially in Indonesia. Here, the episodes of intense precipitation (95th percentiles) during active MJO phases from 1998 to 2015 are evaluated, using the daily precipitation datasets from the gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) and several station rain gauges. The boreal summer MJO influences the likelihood of extreme precipitation, especially in the west and north parts of Indonesia. The west part experiences an increase in the probability of extreme precipitation by up to 55 and 80% during phases 2 and 3, respectively. Moreover, the extreme precipitation probability in the north part increases by up to 40–70% during phases 2–4. On the other hand, the influence of MJO is relatively weak in the south and east parts of Indonesia. The contrast of the precipitation response between the north and south parts of Indonesia is consistent with the northward movement of boreal summer MJO.