The influence of apparent temperature on mortality in the middle belt of Ghana

Abstract

TPS 664: Climate change: temperature effects 2, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 27, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Background/Aim: Globally, studies have shown that diurnal changes in weather conditions and extreme weather events have a profound effect on mortality. This notwithstanding, there is limited evidence of the effect of climatic factors on mortality in resource-poor settings whose populations could be excessively affected; especially in this era of climate change. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of apparent temperature on all-cause mortality and the modifying effect of sex on the apparent temperature-mortality relationship. Methods: We employed a retrospective time-series approach to assess the effect of a composite measure of temperature and relative humidity (apparent temperature) on all-cause mortality with over-dispersed Poisson regression and Distributed Lag-Nonlinear Models. Subsequently, we examined the relative risk of mortality at different temperature values over a 10 day lag period. We used daily counts of all-cause mortality archived by the Kintampo Health Research Centre’s Health and Demographic Surveillance System between 2005 and 2015 for the analysis. Besides, we obtained weather data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency and the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climate Data Centre. Results: We observed a non-linear association between mean daily apparent temperature and all-cause mortality. At the lowest apparent temperature of 18 oC, an increased risk of death was observed from lag 2-4 with the highest relative risk of mortality (RR =1.61, 95% CI: 1.2, 2.15, p-value=0.001) occurring 3 days after exposure. At the lowest apparent temperature, the relative risk of death also varied between males (RR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.94) and females (RR=4.88, 95% CI: 1.40, 16.99) from lag 0-1 and lag 2-4 respectively. Conclusions: The population of Kintampo is generally sensitive to both low and high apparent temperatures with males being prone to both temperature extremes whilst females are more susceptible to low temperature-related mortality.