Abstract
BackgroundThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Wuhan had a much higher mortality rate than the rest of China. However, a large number of asymptomatic infections in Wuhan may have never been diagnosed, contributing to an overestimated mortality rate.ObjectiveThis study aims to obtain an accurate estimate of infections in Wuhan using internet data.MethodsIn this study, we performed a combined analysis of the infection rate among evacuated foreign citizens to estimate the infection rate in Wuhan in late January and early February.ResultsBased on our analysis, the combined infection rate of the foreign evacuees was 0.013 (95% CI 0.008-0.022). Therefore, we estimate the number of infected people in Wuhan to be 143,000 (range 88,000-242,000), which is significantly higher than previous estimates. Our study indicates that a large number of infections in Wuhan were not diagnosed, which has resulted in an overestimated case fatality rate.ConclusionsIncreased awareness of the original infection rate of Wuhan is critical for proper public health measures at all levels, as well as to eliminate panic caused by overestimated mortality rates that may bias health policy actions by the authorities.
Highlights
In December 2019, the first cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were reported in Wuhan, China, a megacity with a population of approximately 11 million people
We estimate the number of infected people in Wuhan to be 143,000, which is significantly higher than previous estimates
Our study indicates that a large number of infections in Wuhan were not diagnosed, which has resulted in an overestimated case fatality rate
Summary
In December 2019, the first cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were reported in Wuhan, China, a megacity with a population of approximately 11 million people. To prevent the spread of this highly infectious disease, the government initiated a city-wide lockdown on January 23, 2020. Despite these efforts, COVID-19 spread to many countries across the world, reaching pandemic levels, and continues to be a serious public health concern due to its high mortality rate. The large number of infected people in Wuhan put a tight strain on essential medical resources. A large number of asymptomatic infections in Wuhan may have never been diagnosed, contributing to an overestimated mortality rate
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