The Indirect Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on the Likelihood of Civil War Onset

Abstract

This study leverages a statistical model to answer an empirical puzzle: given that popular conventional wisdom and many theories of ethnic conflict suggest that the ethnic composition of a society should influence the probability that a country experiences civil war, why are the results of large- n studies so contradictory? The author argues that confusion over the nature of the relationship between ethnic cleavages and the likelihood of civil war onset stems from a disconnect between ethnic conflict theory and empirical testing. Most studies that test for a relationship between the level of ethnic fractionalization and civil war onset test only for a direct relationship, while theories of ethnic conflict have suggested that ethnic diversity should have an indirect effect of the likelihood of civil war onset. The author uses a heteroskedastic probit model to show that ethnic fractionalization has an indirect effect on the likelihood of civil war onset.