The Indigenous Vote in Ecuador's 2002 Presidential Election

Abstract

The Ecuadorian Indian movement entered electoral politics in 1996 through the Pachakutik political party. For the 2002 presidential and congressional elections, Pachakutik made an alliance with ex-colonel and 2000 coup leader Lucio Gutiérrez. After a first-place finish in the first round, Gutiérrez went on to win the presidency in a run-off. This research seeks to determine whether the Indian movement, via Pachakutik, was able to transform its constituency into an effective indigenous voting bloc. The analysis of the 2002 electoral returns applies the Ecological Inference method developed by Gary King. The results show that while indigenous voters were more likely to support Gutiérrez and Pachakutik congressional candidates than non-indigenous voters, large proportions of the indigenous electorate apparently did not follow the well-organized and relatively unified movement leadership.