The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries

Abstract

The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western disturbances associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the twentieth century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.