Abstract
BackgroundThe aim of our study was to determine through a systematic review and meta-analysis the incubation period of COVID-19. It was conducted based on the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA). Criteria for eligibility were all published population-based primary literature in PubMed interface and the Science Direct, dealing with incubation period of COVID-19, written in English, since December 2019 to December 2020. We estimated the mean of the incubation period using meta-analysis, taking into account between-study heterogeneity, and the analysis with moderator variables.ResultsThis review included 42 studies done predominantly in China. The mean and median incubation period were of maximum 8 days and 12 days respectively. In various parametric models, the 95th percentiles were in the range 10.3–16 days. The highest 99th percentile would be as long as 20.4 days. Out of the 10 included studies in the meta-analysis, 8 were conducted in China, 1 in Singapore, and 1 in Argentina. The pooled mean incubation period was 6.2 (95% CI 5.4, 7.0) days. The heterogeneity (I2 77.1%; p < 0.001) was decreased when we included the study quality and the method of calculation used as moderator variables (I2 0%). The mean incubation period ranged from 5.2 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.9) to 6.65 days (95% CI 6.0 to 7.2).ConclusionsThis work provides additional evidence of incubation period for COVID-19 and showed that it is prudent not to dismiss the possibility of incubation periods up to 14 days at this stage of the epidemic.
Highlights
The aim of our study was to determine through a systematic review and meta-analysis the incubation period of COVID-19
Dhouib et al Systematic Reviews (2021) 10:101 duration of exposed or suspected cases is set at 14 days, which is the longest incubation time expected based on initial observations of SARS-CoV-2 and similarity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARSCoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) [11]
Results of the search We identified 117 records through Medline and Science Direct database searches
Summary
The aim of our study was to determine through a systematic review and meta-analysis the incubation period of COVID-19. It was conducted based on the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA). The distribution of the incubation period in most of the literature is either described through a parametric model or its empirical distribution based on the observed incubation period from the contact-tracing data (specific data indicating the time of exposure). Previous population dynamics studies tend to make assumptions about the distribution of the incubation period without using the observed data called modeling studies, and we are talking here about an estimate of the incubation period
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