The improvements of forecast model for regional independent innovation output ability

Abstract

To study the independent innovation capability of Chinese provinces and those development situation, this paper establishes a set of evaluation and forecasting model. In order to evaluate Independent Innovation output Capacity of the regions, the independent innovation capacity factor are found by factor analysis. And then focus on science and technology system characteristics, growth rate data and time series data are added to an improved artificial neural network prediction model. Empirical results show that not only the generalization capability of the prediction model is enhanced but also the prediction accuracy is improved. So the accurate predict of the development of regional independent innovation ability is achieved. Therefore the article has a double value of theory and practice.