The improvement of the shift-share analysis model and application in the industrial structure analysis of the Central Urban Agglomeration in Liaoning province

Abstract

In this paper, the author reviews the basic form and summarizes the extension of the shift-share analysis (SSA) model committed in previous academic literature. Then, the dynamic analysis technique is introduced into the basic model and the dynamic shift-share analysis (DSSA) model is constructed. Based on the DSSA model, two indexes, industrial growth structure index and competitiveness index, and the calculation method are put forward. In order to test the validity and reasonable compatibility of the DSSA, the author selects the central urban agglomeration in Liaoning province (CUAL) and its leaguer city, Fushun and Fuxin, two resource-dependent city, to do an empirical study. The explanation for the fluctuation of the two indexes of the CUAL between 1996 and 2007 is given in the empirical study. The research results indicate that the DSSA model is valuable in the regional analysis and deserves to be put into practice in more regions. As for the CUAL, its industrial structure and economy growth structure have become better up comparing to the contrasting region, Liaoning province. Much evidence has proved that the CUAL would become the growth pole and core area in the economy growth in the Liaoning province. Thus, the resource-dependent city, such as Fushun city, Fuxin city and so on, might take advantage of the priority of industry and interaction among urban system to realize its urban economic transformation strategy.