Abstract

AbstractIt is widely thought that changes in both the surface buoyancy fluxes and wind stress drive variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but that they drive variability on different time scales. For example, wind forcing dominates short-term variability through its effects on Ekman currents and coastal upwelling, whereas buoyancy forcing is important for longer time scales (multiannual and decadal). However, the role of the wind forcing on multiannual to decadal time scales is less clear. Here the authors present an analysis of simulations with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with the aim of explaining the important drivers of the zonal density gradient at 26°N, which is directly related to the AMOC. In the experiments, only one of either the wind stress or the buoyancy forcing is allowed to vary in time, whereas the other remains at its seasonally varying climatology. On subannual time scales, variations in the density gradient, and in the AMOC minus Ekman, are driven largely by local wind-forced coastal upwelling at both the western and eastern boundaries. On decadal time scales, buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation dominates variability in the AMOC. Interestingly, however, it is found that wind forcing also plays a role at longer time scales, primarily impacting the interannual variability through the excitation of Rossby waves in the central Atlantic, which propagate westward to interact with the western boundary, but also by modulating the decadal time-scale response to buoyancy forcing.

Highlights

  • The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth’s climate

  • The decadal peak in the spectrum of the control experiment prominently comes from the buoyancy forcing (BUOY, green line), while the interannual and higher frequencies are dominated by wind forcing (WIND, red line)

  • The percentage of the explained AMOC variance by each mechanism has been estimated from the square correlation coefficient between the principal components (PC) representing each process and the AMOC index, weighted by how much density variance the Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) is explaining

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Summary

Introduction

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth’s climate. Given its large northward heat transport, it is thought that variations in the strength of the AMOC play an essential role in modulating the climate (Knight et al 2005; Sutton and Hodson 2007; Robson et al 2012, 2013; Sutton and Dong 2012). Because of this potentially large impact on climate, there is a significant interest in predicting the Denotes Open Access content. To be able to understand the potential predictability of the AMOC, to properly attribute its role in climate, and to help initialize the potentially predictable components of the AMOC in future prediction systems, it is important to understand the mechanisms that govern the strength of the AMOC

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