The importance of the forecast of the number of inhabitants of the Czech Republic as a basis for the effective development of the transport industry

Abstract

The problem of economic growth of the state is closely related to the influence of demographic factors. The development of transport has always been of great importance for all sectors of the economy. Demographic trends have a significant degree of inertia and are of a long-term nature. Most demographic problems are difficult to solve in the short term by influencing economic and social factors. The development of a developed transport infrastructure makes it possible to improve the quality of life, helps to reduce the unemployment rate, and has a beneficial effect on the mobility of labor resources. In order to correctly predict the need for transport infrastructure in the long term, it is necessary to correctly predict the dynamics of demographic processes. At the same time, the development of transport infrastructure requires large capital investments. To solve demographic problems, it is necessary to conduct a long-term state demographic policy in close correlation with the development of transport infrastructure. The use of an exponential regression model and an indicator of the probability of detecting someone who has lived to a certain age allows us to solve a number of demographic forecasting problems. Linear regression models traditionally used for demographic forecasts are more effective for short-term forecasts. Demographic problems, along with social and economic ones, largely determine the socio-economic situation in the state. Correct demographic forecasts are an effective information support when making managerial decisions by statesmen.