The importance of soils in predicting the future of plant habitat suitability in a tropical forest

G Zuquim,F O G Figueiredo,G M Moulatlet,F R C Costa,H Tuomisto

doi:10.1007/s11104-018-03915-9

Abstract

AimsAssessment of the future of biodiversity under climate change has been based on climate-only models. We investigated the effects of including soil information when predicting future suitable areas for selected plant species in Amazonia.MethodsWe modelled current and future suitable habitats for 35 plant species and compared results of climate-only models with those obtained when climatic and edaphic variables were included. We considered six climatic scenarios for 2050 using different algorithms and projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration.ResultsTwenty-five species distribution models had an AUC > 0.69. Out of those, edaphic variables had the greatest contribution in 11 species models, while climatic variables were more important for 14 species. The inclusion of soil variables affected the size and shape of predicted suitable areas, especially in future models. For nearly half of the species, the size of future suitable areas were smaller in climate+soil models than predicted by climate-only models. Area reduction was more extreme in future scenarios with the higher level of CO2 concentration.ConclusionsOur results highlight the importance of moving beyond climatic scenarios when modelling biodiversity responses to climate change. Failure to include soils in the models can overestimate future habitat suitability for many plant species.

Highlights

Climate, soil and dispersal capacity are the main natural determinants of current plant species distributions across the globe
Amazonia harbors the largest remaining area of tropical forest in the world and provides important ecosystem services that are heavily threatened by anthropogenic activities, deforestation and global warming (Herraiz et al 2017)
Our results highlight the importance of moving beyond climatic scenarios when modelling biodiversity responses to climate change

Summary

Introduction

Soil and dispersal capacity are the main natural determinants of current plant species distributions across the globe. Recent changes in climatic conditions are already affecting diversity patterns and ecosystem functioning, highlighting the pressure for species migration to meet their climatic niche requirements (Walther et al 2002; Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Dillon et al 2010; Pecl et al 2017). Such effects are expected to increase during this century (Thomas et al 2004) which reinforces the need for a research agenda focused on future biodiversity scenarios (Bellard et al 2012; Lenoir and Svenning 2015; Poloczanska et al 2013; Gruner et al 2017). The drier and hotter future climate predicted for Amazonia (Betts et al 2008) could drive a contraction in many species ranges, given that Amazonian plant species tend to be adapted to moist rainforest conditions and, are sensitive to drought (Esquivel-Muelbert et al 2017a, b; Nepstad et al 2007)

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Discussion

Conclusion