The importance of GHG emissions from land use change for biofuels in Brazil: An assessment for current and 2030 scenarios

Abstract

One of the most significant negative environmental impacts of biofuels is GHG emissions caused by land use change (LUC). In Brazil, the National Biofuels Policy (RenovaBio) has the main objective to encourage the incorporation of biofuels into the energy matrix to promote the country's energy transition. This policy, however, does not cover the impacts of LUC through its Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for calculating GHG emissions from biofuel, moving in the opposite direction of international policies such as the European Union (EU) Directive 2018/2001 (REDII). Therefore, this paper analyses the importance of considering LUC for a more realistic GHG emissions assessment. We applied the methodologies of REDII and Decision 2010/335 to calculate GHG emissions from LUC for the Brazilian territory using first-generation sugarcane ethanol (E1G) as a reference for the current and 2030 scenarios. We identified areas where LUC emissions could reduce the carbon intensity of E1G by 5 g CO2e/MJ, while others have the potential to increase by up to 316 g CO2e/MJ. We found that only 10% of the Brazilian territory, if replaced by sugarcane crop, would probably produce sugarcane that contributes to the production of an E1G that mitigates GHG emissions when compared to gasoline. A biome and state analysis were also conducted and the results are concerning, particularly in the case of the expansion into the Amazon biome and Mato Grosso state. We concluded that Brazil must include LUC emissions to align its biofuels with REDII criteria and position the country as a major supplier of EU.