Abstract
Nearly all mathematical models of vector-borne diseases have assumed that vectors die at constant rates. However, recent empirical research suggests that mosquito mortality rates are frequently age dependent. This work develops a simple mathematical model to assess how relaxing the classical assumption of constant mortality affects the predicted effectiveness of anti-vectorial interventions. The effectiveness of mosquito control when mosquitoes die at age dependent rates was also compared across different extrinsic incubation periods. Compared to a more realistic age dependent model, constant mortality models overestimated the sensitivity of disease transmission to interventions that reduce mosquito survival. Interventions that reduce mosquito survival were also found to be slightly less effective when implemented in systems with shorter EIPs. Future transmission models that examine anti-vectorial interventions should incorporate realistic age dependent mortality rates.
Highlights
For many arboviral diseases, vector control remains the primary, and often only, tool for reducing disease incidence [1]
This work aims to answer (1) how predicted mosquito control effectiveness is affected by replacing the classical assumption of a constant mortality hazard with an age dependent mortality hazard and (2) whether these results depend on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP)
While reducing survival dramatically reduced the C* contribution of older mosquitoes in a constant mortality model, this effect is less important in age dependent models
Summary
Vector control remains the primary, and often only, tool for reducing disease incidence [1]. The fundamental theory behind the management of vector-borne diseases arises from Macdonald’s model of malaria formulated half a century ago [3]. His model provided many important intuitive explanations for why certain interventions are more effective than others at reducing transmission. As such, this model is still widely cited as theoretical support for adult mosquito control as the best management approach for vector-borne diseases [4,5,6]. In that way models can yield insight into how the effectiveness of control interventions varies between different vector-pathogen systems. This work examines how a simplifying mosquito mortality assumption affects the predicted effectiveness of adult mosquito control
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