The Implications of Zero Growth for Agricultural Commodity Demand

Abstract

HE relatively recent concern over problems of man's numbers and his environment has led to official endorsement of the concept of a stationary (i.e., non-growing) population by the President's Commission on Population Growth and the American Future [7 ]. Some 35 to 40 years ago there was also interest in the problem of stationarity in the United States, Europe, and other areas, although much of the focus was on potential economic problems that this situation would, in the opinion of some writers, create.1 The purpose of this paper is to examine some consequences of a stationary population, particularly in the sphere of demand for agricultural commodities. The first section reviews demographic consequences of a stationary population; the following section attempts to measure the economic consequences of this state of affairs. The third section treats the problem of changes in agricultural commodity demand resulting from both the diminution in the growth rate of population and the changing age structure of the population that will result as the condition of stationarity is approached.