The implications of the Fetal Medicine Foundation 35- to 36-week preeclampsia prediction competing-risk model on timing of birth

Abstract

Preeclampsia is associated with increased risks of life-threatening, -altering, and -ending complications. Assessment of risk for preeclampsia at 35 to 36 weeks' gestation by the Fetal Medicine Foundation 36-week competing-risk model identifies approximately 75% of women who will develop term preeclampsia, at a 10% screen-positive rate. This study aimed to assess whether the Fetal Medicine Foundation 36-week model can provide personalized guidance to women about the probable timing of their delivery, whether or not they develop pregnancy hypertension. In this prospective nonintervention screening study at 2 maternity hospitals in England, women who did not have preeclampsia (American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists definition) and were attending a routine hospital visit at 35 0/7 to 36 6/7 weeks' gestation underwent assessment of risk for preeclampsia, including maternal demographic characteristics, medical history, mean arterial pressure, and serum placental growth factor and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1. Fetal Medicine Foundation 36-week model risk categories for subsequent preeclampsia were defined as: A, ≥0.500; B, 0.20 to 0.499; C, 0.05 to 0.199; D, 0.020 to 0.049; and E, <0.020. Obstetrical records were examined for all women to identify their gestational age at delivery, and whether they experienced a spontaneous onset of labor (irrespective of mode of delivery) or had a medically indicated birth (either induction of labor or unlabored cesarean delivery). The cumulative incidence of delivery and risk ratios, for all deliveries and for spontaneous deliveries, was assessed. Among 29,035 women with singleton pregnancies, 1.0%, 2.9%, 3.3%, 5.0%, 9.9%, and 77.9% were in A, B, C, D, and E risk strata, respectively. In the A (vs E) stratum, 71.95% (vs 33.52%) of births were medically indicated. Compared with women in stratum E, women in higher risk strata were more likely to deliver, and to deliver following spontaneous labor, before their due date. For example, of the women in stratum A (vs E), 14.2% (vs 1.1%; risk ratio, 12.5 [95% confidence interval, 9.45-15.35]), 48.5% (vs 5.1%; risk ratio, 8.47 [7.48-9.35]), 69.6% (vs 15.5%; risk ratio,3.86 [3.59-4.08]), and 90.1% (vs 44.8%; risk ratio, 6.72 [4.53-9.95]) gave birth before 37 0/7, 38 0/7, 39 0/7, and 40 0/7 weeks, respectively. For women in stratum A (vs E), when censored for medically indicated births, spontaneous labor occurred more commonly before 37 0/7 (risk ratio, 4.31 [1.99-6.57]), 38 0/7 (risk ratio, 3.71 [2.48-4.88]), 39 0/7 (risk ratio, 2.87 [2.22-3.46]), and 40 0/7 (risk ratio, 1.42 [1.14-1.77]) weeks. Women in higher-risk strata gave birth earlier, and more frequently following medically indicated delivery, compared with those in lower-risk strata. Importantly, the proportion of women who gave birth following spontaneous onset of labor before their due date was also greater in higher-risk than in lower-risk women. The Fetal Medicine Foundation 36-week competing-risk model incorporates biomarkers of placental aging, including angiogenic imbalance; these results imply that a fetoplacental response to placental aging may be an important trigger for the onset of labor at term.