The Implications of Demographic Change for Nationalism and Internationalism

Abstract

O NE OF THE MOST significant and least studied aspects of the population is its impact on the formation of national communities. Is there a connection between demographic changes and nationalism, between patterns of loyalty to a national group and changes in the size, geographic distribution and group composition of its population? How great is this connection? The continuing importance of both nationalism and the population explosion in world politics today begs exploration of the relationship between these dynamic quantitative and qualitative areas of social change. Diverse changes in the structure of world population do in fact help to forge the structure of social organization, just as do the shifts in military technology and defensibility which John H. Herz shows to have shaped the size and nature of organized social units. While the unprecedented changes in world population which became evident about 1650 paralleled Herz's gunpowder revolution in influencing the rise of national groups, the societal effects of present population changes may someday match the effects of new thermonuclear weaponry. As population trends continue to mold loyalty to national groups, they are even now affecting loyalty to the international group composed of all world inhabitants. Although population is at best only one factor shaping patterns of group loyalty, it may prove worthwhile to trace out the implications of demographic change not only because they are regularly overlooked but also because they in turn influence other factors which shape loyalty such as education and geographic isolation.