The Implications for Renewable Energy Innovation of Doubling the Share of Renewables in the Global Energy Mix between 2010 and 2030

Deger Saygin,Maria Ayuso,Nicholas Wagner,Ruud Kempener,Dolf Gielen

doi:10.3390/en8065828

Abstract

Benefits of increasing the renewable energy (RE) share in the total energy mix include better energy security, carbon dioxide emission reductions and improved human health. This paper identifies the potential of RE technologies and role of innovation to double the global RE share from 18% to 36% between 2010 and 2030. As a first step, a Reference Case is developed based on national energy plans of 26 countries which increases the RE share to 21% by 2030. Next, the realizable potential of RE technologies is estimated beyond the Reference Case at country and sector levels. By aggregating country potentials, this paper reveals that the global RE share can double to 36% by 2030. Despite differences in starting points and resource potentials, there is a role for each country in achieving a doubling. For many countries their Reference Cases result in low RE shares and many countries are just beginning to explore ways to increase RE use. The paper identifies action areas where innovation can increase technology development and improve cost-effectiveness, thereby accelerating global RE deployment. More research is required to specify these action areas for individual countries and specific technologies, as well as to identify policy needs to address them.

Highlights

In 2011, total final energy consumption (TFEC) reached approximately 340 exajoules globally (EJ).TFEC includes energy use in end-use sectors from all energy carriers as fuel and to generate heat
We developed indicators that reflect the governmental intervention needed to guide innovation policy based on the readiness of each technology, infrastructure requirements to install additional renewable energy (RE) capacity and how to address the uncertainty inherently bounded to an energy system in transition
Our analysis shows that the renewable energy options in REmap can bring the global RE share to

Summary

Introduction

TFEC includes energy use in end-use sectors from all energy carriers as fuel (for the transport sector) and to generate heat (for industry and building sectors). It includes consumed electricity and district heat (DH). It excludes non-energy use, which is the use of energy carriers as feedstock to produce chemicals and polymers. The main drivers behind the growth in energy use are increasing population and economic growth, which are expected to grow further in developing countries. According to projections of different energy scenarios, global energy demand will grow by another 10%–40% by 2030 compared to today’s level (e.g., [1,2,3,4])

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