Abstract

The shortfall in crude oil production, the major source of energy supply and revenue generation in Nigeria, affects all spheres of activities in the country. Activities like politics, economic, budgeting, infrastructural development, the standard of living, and foreign exchange reserve. Therefore, it is imperative to address the implication of energy (crude oil source) on the economy of Nigeria. Hence, a linear regression analysis was used and by first creating a link between oil production (main energy source) and oil earnings (economy) to establish a relationship upon which social-political factors such as the organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC), civil disturbance, flexible regulating framework, infrastructural services, community inclusion for equitable sharing of benefit, and Niger Delta development commission are used as check and balance on oil production and oil earning and their implications on the Nigeria economy. By way of calibration, the paper examines the amount of oil per barrel needed to be produced in a year that would guarantee an increase in oil earnings in Nigeria. The data used for this analysis were collected from the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistic bulletin on crude oil production and total earning in Nigeria between 1980 to 1999. The paper also suggests measures that would enhance the increase in the production of oil from which the country would be able to earn more revenue. The result shows that increasing oil production will simultaneously increase earnings from oil and, consequently, overhaul the various activities such as economy, infrastructural development, health, education sectors, and living standard of the citizen.

Highlights

  • Nigeria is well endowed with a variety of energy sources which are grouped into conventional and non-conventional energy sources

  • Despite the large production and its huge foreign exchange earnings, crude oil production and earnings have been very erratic in Nigeria because of the fluctuations in the price of crude oil at the world market, frequent breakdown of the petroleum refineries, and incessant stoppage of oil production caused by riots, agitation, politics and communal crisis in the oil-producing areas (Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc, 2019; Index Mundi, 2014)

  • The multiple linear regression (MLR) method applied in the evaluation of the implication of oil production on oil earning using predictors factor shows accurate results and the method is good

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Summary

Introduction

Nigeria is well endowed with a variety of energy sources which are grouped into conventional and non-conventional energy sources. The conventional sources of energy include crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, bitumen, and hydroelectricity, while the non-conventional sources include geothermal energy, biomass, oil shale, and sand (Iwayemi, 1998; Zou et al, 2016). Crude oil, which is the most dominant source of energy in Nigeria (Titilayo, 2020; Wu et al, 2019), was discovered in 1956 with an initial output of 51,000 barrels per day (BPD) (Akinosho, 1998). By the 1970s, a sporadic increase in outputs and earnings was witnessed, tagging the period the oil boom era, with crude oil constituting about 70% of the total commercial energy consumption and providing more than 90% of Nigeria's foreign exchange income (Okonkwo, 1998). Despite the large production and its huge foreign exchange earnings, crude oil production and earnings have been very erratic in Nigeria because of the fluctuations in the price of crude oil at the world market, frequent breakdown of the petroleum refineries, and incessant stoppage of oil production caused by riots, agitation, politics and communal crisis in the oil-producing areas (Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc, 2019; Index Mundi, 2014)

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