Abstract
In hydroelectric dominated systems, the value and benefits of energy are higher during extended dry periods and lower during extended or extreme wet periods. By accounting for regional and temporal differences in the relationship between wind speed and reservoir inflow behavior during wind farm site selection, the benefits of energy diversification can be maximized. The goal of this work was to help maximize the value of wind power by quantifying the long-term (30-year) relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior, using British Columbia (BC) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) as a case study. Clean energy and self-sufficiency policies in British BC make the benefits of increased generation during low streamflow periods particularly large. Wind density (WD) estimates from a height of 10m (North American Regional Reanalysis, NARR) were correlated with cumulative usable inflows (CUI) for BC (collected from BC Hydro) for 1979–2010. The strongest WD-CUI correlations were found along the US coast (r ~0.55), whereas generally weaker correlations were found in northern regions, with negative correlations (r ~ -0.25) along BC’s North Coast. Furthermore, during the lowest inflow years, WD anomalies increased by up to 40% above average values for the North Coast. Seasonally, high flows during the spring freshet were coincident with widespread negative WD anomalies, with a similar but opposite pattern for low inflow winter months. These poorly or negatively correlated sites could have a moderating influence on climate related variability in provincial electricity supply, by producing greater than average generation in low inflow years and reduced generation in wet years. Wind speed and WD trends were also analyzed for all NARR grid locations, which showed statistically significant positive trends for most of the PNW and the largest increases along the Pacific Coast.
Highlights
Global wind power generation is growing rapidly, with total investments of $99.5 billion and a record 49GW of newly installed capacity in 2014 alone [1]
The goal of this work was to help maximize the value of wind power by quantifying the long-term (30-year) relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior, using British Columbia (BC) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) as a case study
Trends found in PNW station data have typically been smaller and less geographically consistent than the widespread stilling seen for much of the rest of North America [31,40], and the positive trends seen in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data may not be entirely inconsistent with the observational data
Summary
Global wind power generation is growing rapidly, with total investments of $99.5 billion and a record 49GW of newly installed capacity in 2014 alone [1]. While wind power offers many benefits compared to fossil fuels–including increased energy independence, and lower operational costs, emissions, and impacts from resource extraction–its intermittent nature is a large challenge to effective integration with existing electricity grids. One of the most promising solutions to the issue of intermittency is energy storage in existing hydroelectric reservoirs [2,3,4,5,6]. Large hydroelectric dams have the benefits of large storage capacity, being rapidly dispatchable, and tending to exist in energy limited, rather than capacity limited, energy systems that can benefit from additional energy from intermittent sources [7]. The importance of the relative long-term, multi-decadal variability in wind speeds and hydroelectric reservoir inflows has not been explored. Accounting for the relative variability between hydropower and wind power could lead to the selection of wind farm locations that provide a greater economic value to the energy system as a whole due to more beneficial timing
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