Abstract
We present an analysis of the impacts of weather change and large-scale vegetation conservation programs on the vegetation dynamics in China’s Loess Plateau from 2000 through 2009. We employed a multiple lines of evidence approach in which multi-scale data were used. We employed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 500 m to identify significant vegetation increases in the Loess Plateau since 2000. We found increases in NDVI for 48% of the Loess Plateau between 2000 and 2009. We were able to attribute up to 37.5% of the observed vegetation increases to weather change, vegetation conservation activities and crop yield increases. We demonstrate that the impact of vegetation conservation programs on vegetation change in the Loess Plateau is twofold. On the one hand, vegetation conservation programs target marginal lands. Thus, significant vegetation increases due to cropland conversion and afforestation can be found in these regions. On the other hand, intensified agricultural production can be found in croplands with suitable topography and well-established irrigation systems, which were not enrolled in conservation programs to offset the agricultural production loss caused by vegetation conservation programs elsewhere.
Highlights
Forest transitions refer to the change from a net loss in forest cover to a net gain of forested areas within a specific region [1,2]
We went through multiple steps to attribute the vegetation increases to one of the following potential causes: weather (Section 3.2), land cover change (Section 3.3), vegetation conservation activities reported in statistical yearbooks (Section 3.4), the effect of Grain to Green Program (GTGP) and Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) on elevated areas and areas with steep slopes (Section 3.5), and, we investigate how crop yield has changed as an indirect result of conservation programs (Section 3.6)
We explored the land cover change for three broad land cover categories: natural vegetation, cropland, and barren or sparsely vegetated to identify vegetation dynamics that could be caused by large scale vegetation conservation programs
Summary
Forest transitions refer to the change from a net loss in forest cover to a net gain of forested areas within a specific region [1,2]. The primary goal is to mitigate soil erosion by increasing vegetation cover through converting steep slope agriculture The Loess Plateau was a first priority area for NFCP and two of the three pilot study provinces of GTGP (Gansu and Shanxi) [8,9] were located here. The. Loess Plateau is frequently included in studies which investigate the effects of NFCP and GTGP on vegetation cover change [12,13], desertification control [14], and cost-effectiveness of the programs. We investigated crop yield data to investigate the effects of vegetation conservation programs on croplands in areas with relatively shallow slopes
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