The impacts of land use and land cover change on biophysical processes in West Africa using a regional climate model experimental approach

Abstract

AbstractUsing 2001 and 2016 land use (LU) data and three developed deforestation LU scenarios, namely Deforest I, II and III, the possible impacts of the ongoing land use land cover change (LULCC) over West Africa (WA) and the uncertainty regarding the impacts on regional climate were assessed. Twelve Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations were configured with the default and integrated MODIS satellite dataset for two sets of 3 months (December–February DJF 2011–2012 and July–September JAS 2012) over WA. Between 2001 and 2016, changes that occurred in precipitation, temperature and dew point temperature due to LULCC are mostly not significant at the 95% level with a decrease of 0.8, 0.0 and 0.1%, respectively. Deforest I, II and III caused significant changes with an increase of 44.4, 44.7, 41.5%; 0.8, 0.9, 1.1%; and 0.3, 0.1, −0.2%, respectively, for precipitation, temperature and dew point temperature. Precipitation was lower in the simulation with 2016 LU than it was with 2001 LU, which may have also been influenced by the reforestation that occurred between the periods. However, Deforest III resulted in a widespread nonsignificant rise in precipitation, as the modified areas showed a significant decrease during JAS period. Areas where forests were converted into barren lands revealed severe increase in the surface albedo which is a strong factor that its alteration is capable of influencing precipitation and other variables over WA. LULCC also altered the atmospheric column by modifying the strength of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), wind speed, and monsoonal, vertical, meridional and zonal winds. Heat related fields, such as dew point and air temperature, and moisture fields such as relative humidity were also modified by LULCC. Therefore, as WA reacts strongly to LULCC, sustainable land management practices should be encouraged to control its adverse effects.