The Impacts of Intercity Railway Project on Regional Development of Northwest China Using Scenario Analysis Method: An Example of Gansu Province

Abstract

The planning and argumentation of two intercity railway (IR) projects (Lanzhou-Zhongchuan, Xi’an North Passenger Station-airport) in Northwest China have attracted more and more attention by Chinese Central Government, local governments in Northwest China and some research organizations recently. In order to explore and find out the right way of IR development in Northwest China, we must combine with characteristics and uniqueness of Northwest Provinces, research the question more comprehensively. This paper aims at estimating the strategic impacts of IR construction on regional economy, society and environment in the future systematically, especially on the development of economy. So we choose Lanzhou-Zhongchuan IR as an instance, research this problem based on previous project experiences on it and actual dates provided from No.1 Survey & Design Institute of the Ministry of Railway (MOR). By introducing Scenario analysis method, this paper systematically enumerates and concretely analyzes the opponent viewpoints combining with the decision-making tendency of saving cost, protecting environment, promoting social and economic harmony in transportation planning. And then we make certain what are the critical conflicts in value judgment, select and determine the right construction scheme of the IR from three interactive perspective scenarios. The key technical difficulties and breakthroughs of our research are expressed, such as determination of necessity factors’ weight, forecasting traffic demand of the IR, regional economic impact of the IR and so on. It is expected that scenario analysis method would be helpful for decision-making of IR constructions in the future. And we hope to report further on this in subsequent papers.