The impacts of future sectoral change on the greenhouse gas emissions of construction materials for Swiss residential buildings

Abstract

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a comprehensive method for evaluating building sustainability. However, most studies have relied on generic or national LCA databases, overlooking the systematic consideration of future scenarios and sectoral developments due to data and tool constraints. Moreover, there's a gap in providing a standardized workflow for such evaluations and understanding their impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of buildings on a national level. Addressing these gaps, our study incorporates scenarios from two Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), considering the future developments of the electricity, cement, and steel sectors, to assess embodied GHG emissions of Swiss residential buildings from 2015 to 2055. Our findings reveal that incorporating these future considerations can lead up to a 25% GHG emissions reduction by 2055 compared to 2015, primarily due to GHG emission reductions in concrete and brick as a result of these considerations. This is much less than the emissions reduction potential of some specific construction materials and far from the goal of net zero. It also underscores the importance of exploring alternative strategies for net-zero GHG emissions at the building stock level. Consequently, we present reproducible workflows using open-source tools and future versions of the Swiss national building LCA databases, offering a blueprint for similar future studies in other countries.