The Impacts of Enso, PDO, and Local SSTS on Winter Precipitation in India

Abstract

Monthly precipitation data are assembled to analyze the impact of global teleconnections, namely ENSO, PDO, and local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on winter rainfall across the Indian subcontinent, from 1925 to 1998. Canonical correlation analysis reveals one statistically significant vector for the precipitation occurring over the subcontinent and one for the predictor variables. The results of the analysis indicated a negative relationship between winter precipitation and both ENSO and PDO indices. Most of peninsular India's precipitation, extending into the central plateau region, exhibited a negative correlation with SSTs around the mainland, with the eastern part of the Arabian Sea and adjacent Indian Ocean exhibiting a relatively higher negative correlation. Precipitation in the northeastern part of the country exhibits a positive correlation with the local SSTs. The overall variance explained by the selected set of predictor variables accounts for 12.07% of the total variance in winter precipitation taking place across India. The results of the study will be useful for greater efficiency in the forecasting of winter precipitation.