Abstract
Coffee is the most traded commodity in the world. In Tanzania, Coffee is the second largest traditional commodity. However, several climate change studies have predicted that coffee production will be reduced as a result of climate change. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the impact of current climate change on Tanzania’s Arabica coffee production and determine the most significant climatic variables, which influence coffee production in the respective regions. Global interpolated climatic database (Worldclim dataset) and official historical coffee production data from Tanzania Coffee Board for a period of 40 years (1970-2018) were used. Climatic parameters and coffee production were compared through descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple regressions. The Mann-Kendall method was used to detect significant trends in climatic data. The minimum temperature has been increasing at a higher rate than the maximum temperature in the Northern and Southern Highlands zones. A 1 °C increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) during short rains and annual mean temperature (Tmean) resulted in a significant coffee production decrease (-6,041 and -4,450 tons) in Kilimanjaro and Arusha regions respectively. In the Southern Highlands zone coffee production positively correlated with temperature. A significant reduction in coffee production due to a decline in long rains was also observed in the Kilimanjaro region. The warming and drought trends are likely to continue with significant implications on coffee production and this, calls for the development of suitable adaptation strategies to sustain production. Such strategies may include, re-adapting the coffee agronomic practices to climate change, improving water and nutrient use efficiency in coffee trees, and developing genetically improved coffee cultivars that will tolerate the impact of climate change.
Highlights
Coffee is the second most important item in the world, in terms of trade, next to oil (Jayakumar et al, 2017)
70% of the coffee produced in Tanzania belongs to the species Coffea arabica and 30% is Coffea canephora; the former is produced mainly in Ruvuma, Mbeya, Songwe, Arusha, and Kilimanjaro regions, and the latter in the Kagera region (TCB, 2021)
Data from Lyamungo, Mbimba, and Mbinga were acquired from the offices of the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA), while data from the Burka Coffee estate were acquired from a private operator
Summary
Coffee is the second most important item in the world, in terms of trade, next to oil (Jayakumar et al, 2017). In Tanzania, coffee is the second-largest traditional commodity (Tanzania Coffee Board (TCB), 2021). It contributes 24% to the annual agricultural foreign exchange earnings and significantly contributes to tax revenue. 70% of the coffee produced in Tanzania belongs to the species Coffea arabica and 30% is Coffea canephora; the former is produced mainly in Ruvuma, Mbeya, Songwe, Arusha, and Kilimanjaro regions, and the latter in the Kagera region (TCB, 2021). For the case of Coffea arabica, the commercial varieties grown in Tanzania are Bourbon (N39) and Kents (K 423). The main production constraints for the commercial varieties are, high susceptibility to major coffee diseases like Coffee Berry Disease (CBD) and Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR).
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