Abstract
Coffee is an annual crop sensitive to climate variability. Most Indonesian coffee is cultivated on marginal lands that are vulnerable to environmental changes, including climate. Indonesia's climate variability is influenced by several factors, including the monsoon, local aspects, and global climate oscillations such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is crucial to identify the impacts of climate variability on both the production and the economy to develop adaptative measures. This study aims to determine the effects of global climate variability, namely ENSO and IOD, on coffee production in several Indonesian production centers. It uses annual coffee production data in the five major production centers in Indonesia. The ENSO indicators used in this study were the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 region and the IOD indicator in the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The production anomaly analysis approach in neutral years and the extreme ENSO and IOD phases were applied in this study. The results showed that the effects of ENSO and IOD were different in each region. The highest decline in production occurred in the La-Nina year in almost all production centers. The decline in output in the La-Nina year ranged from 6 to 22%. Meanwhile, the IOD that had a decreasing effect on production was positive IOD with a decrease ranging from 1 to 15%. Key words: ENSO; IOD; Economy; Climate change.
Highlights
Most coffee plantations in Indonesia are smallholder plantations involving around 1.7 million farmers (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2019)
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurs when the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) value is more significant than 0.5, and a negative IOD occurs when the DMI value is smaller than -0.5
This increased productivity variability indicates that cultivation techniques and environmental conditions vary between districts
Summary
Indonesia has long been recorded as one of the world’s major coffee producers. Most coffee plantations in Indonesia are smallholder plantations involving around 1.7 million farmers (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2019). Robusta coffee dominates Indonesia’s coffee production, namely 75.4%, and involves 1.23 million farmers. The remaining 24.6% is Arabica coffee, involving 542,072 farmers (Directorate of plantation, 2019). Coffee is cultivated in almost all Indonesian provinces, but the leading coffee producing regions are Aceh, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Lampung, East Java, South Sulawesi, and Bengkulu
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