Abstract
The impacts of climate change on the energy system are diverse; this article focuses on the potential effects on UK energy demand and the ramifications for national infrastructure building on the findings of the UK’s 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment. It reviews the available literature, where it exists, on the relationships among current energy demand, weather and climate change, and the implications for these relationships due to mitigation plans and potential adaptation responses. The review highlights the mechanisms by which future climate change, in particular changes in mean and extreme temperature, could affect the annual amount of UK energy demand and the seasonal, daily and spatial variation of the impacts. Published literature quantifying the effects of climate change on UK energy demand is limited; thus, where evidence is not available, information on the current relationship between weather and demand is combined with expert judgement to highlight potential demand responses to a changing climate without quantification. The impacts identified could have significant implications for the long-term planning of energy infrastructure and system operation and building design, depending on their magnitude, highlighting the need for further research in this area.
Highlights
Long-term planning of energy infrastructure requires an appreciation of how energy demand may change over timescales of 15–30 years or more (National Grid, 2014a)
In order to systematically identify the potential impacts of climate change on energy demand, this paper considers first each of the main sources of energy demand in the UK, highlighting, where the evidence exists, the current relationships between weather and energy demand, and, how climate change may affect existing relationships
The main impact of climate change on energy demand highlighted in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) is related to future heat and cooling demand
Summary
Long-term planning of energy infrastructure requires an appreciation of how energy demand may change over timescales of 15–30 years or more (National Grid, 2014a). Parameters of demand considered here that are likely to be affected by climate change include (but are not limited to) the following: the size of annual energy demand, the size and timing of peak demand, the spatial distribution of demand and the sector affected (Chandramowli and Felder, 2014; ENA, 2011; National Grid, 2014a, 2014b, 2014c). These parameters of demand are among those considered when planning and managing energy infrastructure. The paper is structured as follows: ʻBackgroundprovides further information on the context of the paper and background information on the major observable relationships of UK energy demand with weather parameters at present and related climate impact projections. ʻImpacts of climate change on energy demanddiscusses key energy demand sectors, focusing on current end use patterns of the sector, their existing weather relationship and how climate impacts could influence future demand. ʻClimate adaptation measures and energy demanddiscusses the energy associated with some of the large-scale adaptation options, andDiscussion and conclusionsdiscusses the findings in the context of wider societal changes affecting energy demand and provides the conclusion
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