The Impacts of Climate Change on Food Poisoning Cases in Malaysia

Abstract

Introduction: Malaysia is a tropical country, and the climate is hot and humid throughout the year, which is suitable for the growth of the foodborne microbes. This study is an attempt to quantify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates of food poisoning cases. Methodology: Monthly food poisoning cases and average monthly meteorological data from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Malaysian Ministry of Health and Malaysian Meteorological Department, respectively. Population projections in Malaysia, up to the year 2040 were adopted from the Malaysian Department of Statistics and modified to the year 2100 based on the mean percentage increase of 40 years. The PRECIS model was used to project future climate up to the year 2100 under the A1B scenario. Poisson generalized linear models were developed to quantify the relationship between climatic parameters and the number of reported food poisoning cases in the future. Result: The findings revealed that the total number of food poisoning cases in Malaysia during the 11 years of study period was 134,818 cases with 46 deaths. The mean age of the patients was 20±18 years old. Some 52.8% of the cases were among the ages of 13-24 years old, followed by 25.3% and 21.6% among the ages of 25-59 years old and below than 12 years old, respectively. Among the cases, 97.2% were Malaysians and 55.7% were females. Temperature, precipitation and relative humidity gave a significant impact on food poisoning cases in Kelantan and Melaka (p<0.005), while in Pahang and Sabah, only disease trend was significant (p<0.005). E.coli was associated with food poisoning cases in 2 states which were in Johor and Sabah (p<0.005). Projected percentage increase in food poisoning cases per month up to the year 2100 under A1B scenario in Kelantan, Melaka, Pahang and Sabah were 36.5%, 51.0%, 18.0% and 45.9%, respectively. Conclusion: The study concludes that climate does affect the distribution of food poisoning cases in certain states in Malaysia.