The impacts of climate change and smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacities on rice production in Chengdu, China: macro-micro analysis

Abstract

Among other cultivated crops, rice is the most sensitive to climate variability over its growing season. As such, over-reliance on climate conditions for rice farming calls for a wide range of strategies critical to curtailing the adverse impact of climate change on rice production. Notwithstanding, there remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of adaptive capacities among China’s small-scale farmers who depend on climate conditions for farming. This study is broadly divided into two parts that are distinct but connected. First, we assess the effects of climate change on rice production in Chengdu (China), covering the period 2000Q1-2016Q4. We show that mean rainfall and temperature induce rice production positively in the long and short run. While temperature variability insignificantly impacts rice production in the long run, it plays a substantial role in the short run. Rainfall variability and the interaction term between temperature and precipitation are unfavourable to rice production in the long and short run. The results reveal that energy usage and fertilizer application support rice production, although the impact of energy consumption is significant in the short run. Second, we used a survey of 383 smallholder rice growers in Chengdu to examine farmers’ adaptive capacities to climate change in rice production. The results show that farmers’ adaptive capabilities significantly affect rice production. We argue that the centrepiece of improving rice production under continuous climate change is for farmers to develop a high adaptive capacity to the changing climatic conditions. This is achieved through intensive education on available adaptation strategies and their long-term implications.