The impacts analysis of the technological shift in rice production to directly-seeded flooded rice on output supply and input demand in Lombok West Nusa Tenggara

Abstract

The serious harvesting failure that occurred in the agricultural year 1979/1980 affected as many as 11.250 hectares. Since 1980/1981, this phenomenon inspired a technological shift in rice production to Directly-seeded flooded rice on rainfed land. Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara province achieved self-sufficiency of rice in 1984, a year before national self-sufficiency in 1985. This research aims to analyze the impact of directly-seeded flooded rice as a climate change adaptation strategy on output supply and input demand. Time series data from 2000 to 2015 was analyzed by employing Translog Profit Function and Seemingly Unrelated Regression. The results showed that Directly-seeded flooded rice as a climate change adaptation strategy has a positive impact on output supply and input demand. It indicated (1) elastic output supply subject to self-price change of rice and labor, yet inelastic to the price of seed, Urea fertilizer, TSP, and NPK fertilizer. (2) All demand inputs were inelastic subject to self-price except casual labor and herbicide, and elastic subject to output price. Herbicide and fertilizers are complementary inputs to the directly-seeded flooded rice, while herbicide and casual labor are substitution inputs. The output and inputs price changes faced by farmers have both positive as well as negative impacts on output supply and input demand. It means that inputs such as seed, fertilizers, pesticides, and energy such as petrol for hand tractors are the main physical inputs to Directly-seeded flooded rice. Those inputs were very strategic economic goods, meanings that when the price changes occurred, it disturbed supply directly and performance of rice farming, either the production side, profits, or price risk. It also has food security impacts in Lombok.