Abstract
This paper examines the impact of exchange rate expectation and foreign trade on the process of RMB internationalization based on an SVAR model. Considering the data limitation, this paper we present the progress of RMB internationalization separated by Hodrick-Prescott filter from Jul 2009 to Aug 2016. This study observes that the RMB appreciation expected as well as the reasonably increasing foreign trade may promote RMB internationalization; the impact of exchange rate expectation volatility plays a leading role. Therefore our empirical results have important implications for policymakers in reasonably controlling the scale of foreign trade and guide formation of exchange rate mechanism.
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