Abstract
The China–US trade conflict will inevitably have a negative impact on China’s trade imports and exports, industrial development, and economic growth, and will affect the achievement of climate change goals. In the short term, the impact of the trade conflict on China’s import and export trade will cause the carbon emissions contained in traded commodities to change accordingly. To assess the impact of the trade conflict on China’s climate policy, this paper combines a model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the input–output analysis method and calculates the carbon emissions in international trade before and after the conflict. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade war has led to a sharp decline in China–US trade, but for China as a whole, imports and exports have not changed much; (2) China’s export emissions have changed little, its import emissions have dropped slightly, and its net emissions have increased; and (3) China’s exports are still concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Changes in trade will bring challenges to China’s balancing of climate and trade exigencies. China–US cooperation based on energy and technology will help China cope with climate change after the trade conflict.
Highlights
The United States and China are the two largest economies: China relied on its institutional advantages to control the number of domestic cases [3] and the economy recovered rapidly in the US due to the popularization of vaccines
The model used in this paper is the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model developed by researchers at Purdue
The trade conflict model setting reflects a scenario in which the United States imposes tariffs on different trade commodities to eliminate the trade deficit, and China counters with tariffs of its own
Summary
The United States and China are the two largest economies: China relied on its institutional advantages to control the number of domestic cases [3] and the economy recovered rapidly in the US due to the popularization of vaccines. American citizens are eager for excess savings during the retaliatory consumption epidemic, and many industries are experiencing inflation [4]. Among their major suppliers, in addition to China, countries in south and southeast Asia are hardest hit by the epidemic, and it is even difficult for India to control its own situation [5,6]. The trade tensions between China and the United States tend to ease, and have been an important factor affecting international trade in recent years
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