The impact of volcanic forcing on tropical temperatures during the past four centuries

Abstract

The effect of volcanism on low-latitude climate has been difficult to quantify. A compilation of tropical and subtropical annually resolved climate reconstructions shows a correlation between low sea surface temperatures and low-latitude volcanic activity over the past four centuries. Palaeoclimate records have demonstrated links between high-latitude climate changes and tropical as well as high-latitude volcanic activity1,2,3,4,5. However, little is known about the impact of high-or low-latitude volcanic eruptions on tropical climate, particularly for the period preceding the instrumental record6,7,8,9. Here we use annually resolved temperature-related records from corals, tree rings and ice cores to investigate the relationship between volcanism and low-latitude climate. Over the past 450 years, we find an association between low-latitude volcanic events and lower sea surface temperatures in the tropical oceans. The longest sustained cold period in recent centuries occurred in the early nineteenth century, following the eruption of Tambora and a second, unidentified but presumably tropical1, volcano. We therefore conclude that the tropical ocean–atmosphere system has been sensitive to changes in radiative forcing caused by tropical volcanism over the past several centuries.