Abstract
BackgroundVenezuela is one of the most violent countries in the world. According to the United Nations, homicide rates in the country increased from 32.9 to 61.9 per 100 000 people between 2000 and 2014. This upsurge coincided with a slowdown in life expectancy improvements. We estimate mortality trends and quantify the impact of violence-related deaths and other causes of death on life expectancy and lifespan inequality in Venezuela.MethodsLife tables were computed with corrected age-specific mortality rates from 1996 to 2013. From these, changes in life expectancy and lifespan inequality were decomposed by age and cause of death using a continuous-change model. Lifespan inequality, or variation in age at death, is measured by the standard deviation of the age-at-death distribution.ResultsFrom 1996 to 2013 in Venezuela, female life expectancy rose 3.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.08–4.09] years [from 75.79 (75.98–76.10) to 79.36 (78.97–79.68)], and lifespan inequality fell 1.03 (–2.96 to 1.26) years [from 18.44 (18.01–19.00) to 17.41 (17.30–18.27)]. Male life expectancy increased 1.64 (1.09–2.25) years [from 69.36 (68.89–59.70) to 71.00 (70.53–71.39)], but lifespan inequality increased 0.95 (–0.80 to 2.89) years [from 20.70 (20.24–21.08) to 21.65 (21.34–22.12)]. If violence-related death rates had not risen over this period, male life expectancy would have increased an additional 1.55 years, and lifespan inequality would have declined slightly (–0.31 years).ConclusionsAs increases in violence-related deaths among young men (ages 15–39) have slowed gains in male life expectancy and increased lifespan inequality, Venezuelan males face more uncertainty about their age at death. There is an urgent need for more accurate mortality estimates in Venezuela.
Highlights
Most Latin American countries experienced sizable improvements in health, living standards and longevity in the second half of the 20th century.[1]
We examined death counts from official mortality yearbooks reported by the Venezuelan Ministry of Health from 1996 to 2013.21 We used annual population estimates from the Venezuelan National Institute of Statistics[22] as the denominator to compute age-specific death rates
Recent homicide trends suggest that conditions will not improve, and may even deteriorate
Summary
Most Latin American countries experienced sizable improvements in health, living standards and longevity in the second half of the 20th century.[1]. While life expectancy increased by 3.8 years per decade between 1950 and 1990, gains since 1990 have fallen to 1.8 years every 10 years.[3] This slowdown coincides with a continuous rise in levels of violence in Venezuela. According to the United Nations, homicide rates in the country increased from 32.9 to 61.9 per 100 000 people between 2000 and 2014 This upsurge coincided with a slowdown in life expectancy improvements. We estimate mortality trends and quantify the impact of violencerelated deaths and other causes of death on life expectancy and lifespan inequality in Venezuela. If violence-related death rates had not risen over this period, male life expectancy would have increased an additional 1.55 years, and lifespan inequality would have declined slightly (–0.31 years). There is an urgent need for more accurate mortality estimates in Venezuela
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