The Impact of Urban Sprawl on Temperature in the United States Over the Past Four Decades

Abstract

Urban sprawl contributes to the heat island effect by eliminating vegetation, expanding dark surfaces, and increasing daily travel distance. This study quantifies this effect by constructing and linking the required measures and exploiting variations in the data using different identification strategies to quantify the causal relationship. I construct an index of residential compactness in US metropolitan areas using satellite remote sensing and geographic information to analyze landscape changes from 1974–2012 and link them to the Global Surface Summary of the Day data for the same period. To address the reverse causality issue (the effect of temperature differences on horizontal development), I utilize the planned interstate highways emanating from the central cities as an instrument for sub-urbanization in the United States. I also add another layer of identification by introducing a control group for each metropolitan statistic area (MSA) in the sample. The results suggest a positive and causal relationship between the temperature of the MSA center and urban sprawl. Thus, horizontal development of the city imposes an extra burden on the temperature of the city center.