The Impact of Urban Development on Auto Ownership and Transit Use

Abstract

This study documents an investigation of how intermetropolitan differences in transit and highway service levels; as well as overall urban development patterns, affect auto ownership and use. Specifically, this paper presents models of the determinants of auto ownership and mode choice for 163,488 white, single‐worker households residing in the largest 125 SMSAs in 1970. Indices of highway capicity, transit service levels, and overall residential density for each SMSA together with each household's socio‐economic characteristics, workplace location, and residence choice, are used to explain each household's observed auto ownership status (0, one, or more than one car), and, given that auto ownership status, each household's worktrip mode (auto driver, auto passenger, bus, rail, or walk).The models offer a framework for considering the effect of alternative urban development scenarios upon auto ownership and use, and for comparing alternative development and infrastructure policy options. Because the models have been estimated using households from different SMSAs, they are particularly appropriate for investigating changes in spatial structure.