The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model

Abstract

Exogenous uncertainty shocks may have different effects on domestic and foreign consumption under different consumer confidence regimes. In this paper, we specify a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model with different consumer confidence regimes to study the response of endogenous macroeconomic variables to exogenous shocks. The evidence shows that in China, compared to high consumer confidence, low consumer confidence dampens consumption both at home and abroad. However, low consumer confidence benefits exports, the source of foreign consumption. A forecast error variance decomposition analysis further confirms the difference in the effects under different consumer confidence regimes. A comparative analysis shows that consumer confidence is much more influential in the US than in China. Our findings differ from those of earlier works, as we introduce stochastic uncertainty to both the mean and heteroscedasticity and apply counterfactual analysis to show the hazard of ignoring stochastic uncertainty in the traditional threshold vector autoregression. Finally, from the ex ante and ex post perspectives, we provide managerial implications for the authorities to tackle economic issues based on different consumer confidence regimes.