The Impact of Uncertainty in Lead Time and Demand in Disaster Relief Supply Chains

Abstract

This paper presented a system dynamics model to study the impact of uncertainty in disaster-relief supply chains. The material flows and information feedback flows of both the commercial supply chains and disaster-relief supply chains were analyzed. The structures of four types of inventory planning strategies were compared. The effect of static/dynamic lead time and constant/random demand were tested in simulations with different decision methods. The simulation results indicated that both the dynamic lead time and the random demand bring more oscillations to the supply system, and the mutual influence of them makes the behavior of a disaster-relief supply chain different from a commercial supply chain. More decision-making issues need to be considered to solve that uncertainty comes from the mutual influence.