Abstract

In recent history, the ongoing trade war between the United States and China is unparalleled. This research looks at the impact of trade wars on Indonesian agricultural products' competitiveness and export performance. The methods used for this study are NRCA, EPD and CMSA. We find that conditions of the trade war between China and the US affect the competitiveness and competitiveness of Indonesian agricultural products in the destination countries. The impact of the trade war conditions on the competitiveness of Indonesian agricultural products compared to China and their export to the United States. Indonesia's agricultural exports during the trade war to China's and US destination countries are: HS 01, HS 04, HS 08, HS 12 and HS 18. Indonesian agricultural exports to China and the US are influenced primarily by the increase in global demand and the composition of competitiveness.

Highlights

  • Since 2013, a heated US-China trade rivalry has led to trade war

  • Normalize Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) (Normative Revenue Comparative Advantage) index, CMSA (Constant Market Share Analysis) and EPD (Export Product Dynamics) are the analytical tools used in this research

  • The growth is indicated by the large number of Indonesian agricultural export commodities included in the “Rising Star” category on the market of the destination country of the United States

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Summary

Introduction

Since 2013, a heated US-China trade rivalry has led to trade war. This trade war was waged by restricting both countries' exports of goods and services by applying high tariffs and other trade policies such as quotas, food safety certifications and others. The trade war began in June 2016, when President Trump attacked China's unfair trade policies [1] This situation received a response from the Chinese state by retaliating against imposing tariffs on U.S imported products [2]. This continues to reciprocate and continues to this day, affecting other countries, including Indonesia. At the beginning of 2018 , the United States enforced Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act (alleging a national security threat) to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum goods, which sparked U.S trade tensions with major steel and aluminum exporters, including China. An export performance review is needed to examine the impact of trade wars on Indonesia’s flagship commodity exports and what factors affect them

Methodology
Falling Star
Result and Report
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